2025 didn’t just pass - it exposed the fault lines in contract catering.

Some operators moved forward. Others stood still. And a few quietly fell behind.

As 2026 begins, the gap between front-runners and everyone else is widening - driven by data & AI, consolidation, experience design, and a growing demand for transparency.

To understand what really changed in 2025 - and what will actually matter in 2026 - we brought together three leaders with a front-row seat to the industry:

• Peter Baech, Co-founder and CEO, Kanpla

• Simon Elliot, Co-founder and Managing Partner, 4xi Global Consulting

• Chris Stern, Founder & Managing Director, Stern Consultancy Ltd

Hosted by Toby Bonnett, the conversation cuts through the noise to examine what actually shifted in 2025 - and what will separate the front-runners from the rest in 2026.

2025 Exposed the Industry’s New Reality

One of the clearest signals from the conversation was that 2025 marked a real turning point.

Not because of a single trend, but because the industry finally stopped looking backwards.

Peter Bæch framed it clearly.

“This was the year we stopped referring back to COVID. We’re fully out of it now.” - Peter Bæch

Instead, a new operating reality took hold. One defined by higher expectations, tighter economics, and a different relationship between caterers, clients, and technology.

For Peter, this new era is shaped less by novelty and more by how companies work together.

“What defines this new era for me is transparency and partnership.” - Peter Bæch

At the same time, AI moved from theoretical promise to practical experimentation across the industry.

"It’s hard to look at 2025 or predict 2026 without mentioning AI.” - Peter Bæch

Simon described 2025 as a year of ambiguity. Multiple forces moved at once, and the challenge shifted from predicting the future to navigating overlapping change.

Chris Stern added another defining force, particularly in the UK market.

“That consolidation has opened the door to some of the independents.” - Chris Stern

The big operators continue to get bigger. For example, Compass Group and Westbury Street Holdings continue their consolidation of the market with their house of brands approach including Restaurant Associates, CH&CO, BaxterStorey, Benugo, BM Caterers, Genuine Dining etc.

At the same time, Chris pointed to independents such as Thomas Franks Ltd, Bennett Hay, and Thomas & Tate as operators gaining momentum by staying focused on execution and identity.

From Data Chaos to Decision Power

For years, data has been described as one of the industry’s greatest untapped assets. In practice, it often became a source of complexity.

Menus, allergens, suppliers, pricing, waste, margins, feedback, sustainability goals. All sitting across disconnected systems.

In 2025, that began to change.

“Data is now on top of the agenda in a way it wasn’t a few years ago.” - Peter Bæch

Peter highlighted that the real shift was not access to data, but the ability to understand and act on it. AI started lowering the barrier, making insight more accessible without adding operational burden.

Chris Stern reinforced a critical reality.

“The catering team is getting the lunch out. They haven’t got the time to do stuff with data.” - Chris Stern

The most meaningful progress, he noted, is happening quietly behind the scenes. Automation improving pricing, allergen information, waste tracking, and efficiency without demanding more from already stretched teams.

Buy vs Build: The Most Honest Tech Conversation of the Episode

One of the most candid moments came when the panel turned to a question many caterers are still grappling with: should they build their own technology or buy from specialist providers?

Simon Elliot did not soften his view.

“Why would a top-tier technology company do its own food service, and why would a food service company try to build its own technology?” - Simon Elliot

He followed with a warning drawn from experience.

“If you build it yourself, it will take you twice as long, cost you twice as much, and do half the things you want it to do.”

Peter Bæch agreed that differentiation rarely comes from features alone. What matters is how technology is deployed, adopted, and turned into real experiences for guests and operators.

The takeaway was clear. Success in 2026 will not come from owning technology, but from using it deliberately and effectively.

Why Some Operators Pulled Ahead - and Others Didn’t

The operators that progressed most in 2025 shared one defining trait. They aligned food service directly with the client’s workplace strategy.

They stopped selling food alone and started solving broader challenges around culture, engagement, and return to office.

“The frontrunners are the ones that tailor their service based on the workplace strategy of the client.” - Peter Bæch

Chris Stern shared concrete evidence of this shift. Despite lower office occupancy than before the pandemic, spend in many workplaces increased significantly.

“I’m seeing people spend over five pounds per person per day. That was unheard of before COVID.” - Chris Stern

Better food, stronger concepts, and experiences that rival the high street changed how employees engaged with food at work. In many cases, workplace catering became better value than external alternatives.

The Margin Conversation the Industry Avoided for Too Long

One of the most direct moments of the episode came when Chris Stern addressed a long-standing industry habit.

“Caterers should stop hiding stuff.” - Chris Stern

He argued that financial transparency is essential for building sustainable partnerships. Running complex contracts on wafer-thin margins benefits no one long term.

Importantly, Chris noted signs of progress in 2025. More caterers are now willing to state the margins they need to operate properly, often in the 10 to 15 percent range.

Simon Elliot supported this at a principle level.

“If you take a transparent position and explain it properly, clients are happy for you to earn a fair return.” - Simon Elliot

ESG Is No Longer a Differentiator. It’s the Baseline

While some perceive sustainability as slipping down the agenda, the panel agreed this reflects maturity rather than decline.

“It’s not going away. Sustainability and ESG are baked into everything now.” - Chris Stern

Clients increasingly expect strong ESG credentials as a given. It is no longer something to win points for, but something that must be delivered consistently.

Simon Elliot added a workforce-driven perspective.

“As students move into the workforce, sustainability becomes more and more important.” - Simon Elliot

The real challenge for 2026 is not ambition, but execution. Ensuring ESG commitments are properly resourced and translated into measurable outcomes.

What Will Shape 2026

Looking ahead, several forces stood out clearly.

Cost pressure, particularly around labour, will continue. AI and automation will accelerate, especially behind the scenes. Health, nutrition, and wellbeing will move higher up the agenda as younger generations enter the workforce.

Peter highlighted the unique role food plays.

“Food at work is where most people eat the most outside of home.” - Peter Bæch

Simon reinforced that food service now plays a more strategic role than ever before.

“Food service has become more elevated, especially in business and industry.” - Simon Elliot

One Piece of Advice for 2026

As the conversation came to a close, one thing was clear. There is no single silver bullet for 2026, but there is a clear direction of travel.

Experience, technology, transparency, and sustainability are no longer separate initiatives. They rise and fall together.

Against that backdrop, each guest offered a clear focus for the year ahead.

“Invest in experiences and people.” - Peter Bæch

For Peter, the opportunity lies in elevating food through better experiences - supported by technology, but driven by people and purpose.

“Continue to do an amazing job with food, underpin it with effective tech, and don’t forget ESG.” - Chris Stern

Chris emphasised execution and fundamentals: great food, smart use of technology, and a visible commitment to sustainability - not as a side project, but as part of the core offer.

“Fully embrace AI to turn data into insights you can make decisions on.” - Simon Elliot

Simon’s advice focused on mindset. AI is no longer optional experimentation. It is the mechanism that turns complexity into clarity - and enables better decisions at every level of the organisation.

Together, these perspectives point to a simple but demanding reality: 2026 will reward focus, honesty and intent. The rest will be noise.